What is affiliate fraud? How to detect and prevent fake conversions
Picture this.
You wake up, pour your morning coffee, and check your affiliate dashboard ☕
The numbers look AMAZING, sales are pouring in, commissions stacking up, and your growth? It…is…on…fire 🔥
But what if behind those stats, there’s a potential nightmare unfolding?
Because many of those “conversions” could well be phantoms.
Fake leads, bots, fraudsters spinning your affiliate program like a rigged casino table.
Your whole affiliate tracking system hinges on UTM codes - those little tags in your links that tell you exactly who and where traffic and sales comes from 💵
Seems a solid approach. But here’s the catch.
UTM tracking can also be your biggest achilles heel ⚠️
It’s shockingly easy to spoof, fake or even manipulate, with fraudsters generating fake clicks and ghost leads that look perfectly legit.
Every fake lead triggers a commission payout - that’s real money leaking out of your marketing budget for customers that don’t even exist.
What’s next is worse - your ROI tanks, your budget drains and your data keeps lying to you…and you have no idea it’s happening 📉
Affiliate fraud is a stealthy predator that feeds off your budget whilst your marketing team is sitting there high-fiving and cheering the numbers.
But here’s the truth, you can fight back. You can lock down your affiliate funnel, spot the fakes, and reclaim your budget with the right tools (that are built for marketers, not fraud experts).
Fraudsters might be clever, but with the right tools, you’re smarter 💡
But first…ask yourself, do you really know if your affiliate program is working, are new customers actually new, or just the same customers, using the same devices, triggering fraudulent payouts.
In this article we cover:
Lets get into it 👇
So, what is affiliate fraud?
Affiliate fraud is when bots, bad affiliates or self appointed “growth hackers” manipulate your affiliate tracking system to get paid for conversions that either never happened or never should have been rewarded 🤖
You can’t look at this as “suspicious traffic”, or compare it to ad fraud which typically hits you when your ad is clicked, affiliate fraud is much more insidious and it strikes right where it hurts most…the conversion.
That means:
- Duplicate payouts from the same user, either using the same or different devices
- Fake leads that never intend to buy, or pay
- Stolen conversions from legit traffic
- Bots triggering utter chaos
- Stacked commissions from recycled UTM links
The kicker? Most affiliate platforms still rely on basic UTM tracking, cookie drops, or simple referral links to track all of it 🍪
So if a bad actor wants to game the system, all they have to do is fire fake traffic through the right link, or hijack a window.
Why leave the fraudster to sit and laugh all the way to the bank? 🤷
Who’s most affected?
If you run any kind of affiliate or referral program, you’re a target. The more you scale, the juicier you look to fraudsters.
That being said, some businesses bleed more than others:
eCommerce brands 🛍️
Affiliate fraudsters piggyback on legit customer journeys using stolen last-click UTM links, hijack promo code attribution, or mass-generate low value referrals just to trigger payouts.
One fraudster with a coupon site and a script can drain your budget by the hour - it’s that simple.
SaaS & lead-gen platforms 💻
We’re talking fake trial signups, dummy demo requests and automated form fills that look qualified on paper.
Fraudsters use bots or low-cost labor to pump your CRM with fake leads, all tied to their affiliate ID, so they can walk off with commissions that you can’t easily claw back.
Apps and subscription services 📱
Referral fraud is rampant in apps and subscription tools, especially when rewards are offered on a per install, signup, or referral basis.
Fraudsters can quickly and easily spin up virtual devices, spoof installs, or even hijack and abuse invite loops just to farm rewards.
Referral schemes with “free” incentives 🚫
Have a “refer a friend, get $10” program? Fraudsters eat those alive.
They’ll automate fake referrals using disposable emails, spoofed IPs, and virtual machines and you’ll end up paying out for users who never engage, buy, or come back.
How affiliate works on a technical front
Here’s how the scam plays out in real life:
- The fraudster gets a valid affiliate link, usually with a UTM tracking code that’s tied to their ID and account
- They start generating fake traffic, using bots, click farms or by simply leveraging redirect scripts that spoof engagement (yes, still very much a thing!)
- They start spoofing conversions via fake leads, dummy signups or even by hijacking real users through cookie stuffing or device spoofing
- Your platform just looks at surface-level data and says “Looks good!” because the UTM matches, the cookie is valid, and the required form was filled out and submitted
- You pay out, thinking it’s a legit partner bringing home the goods
And then?
Rinse, repeat, bleed more money 💸
Why UTM tracking simply isn’t enough
UTM parameters weren’t designed for fraud detection.
They were built to tell you where your traffic came from, not whether the traffic is actually real.
UTMs are static, so once someone has the link, it can be used anywhere, by anyone.
And worst still:
- They don’t actually verify the user behind the click
- They don’t tell you if the device has done this 15 times before
- They don’t flag unusual IP patterns, VPNs or proxies
- They don’t alert you when every conversion happens from the same device
In simple terms, UTMs are easy to fake and blind to any form of abuse.
And this is why if you’re not leveraging the right tools, it makes them the perfect playground for fraud and abuse.
Why it hurts more than you think
Affiliate fraud isn’t just about wasted commission, it corrupts your entire performance marketing engine.
If you don’t think this sounds like a real problem, here’s a breakdown of the impact it has:
Lost budget 💰
You’re paying for traffic that never had genuine intent, leads that will never convert to paying customers, and conversions that were never real. The fraudsters win, and you lose.
Dirty data 📉
With fake conversions inflating your dashboards, your CAC looks lower than it actually is, your CPA looks misleadingly healthy, and your campaigns look like they’re crushing. But try scaling on that data, and watch it fall apart.
Broken trust 🤝
Affiliates are supposed to be your trusted partners. But if you can’t tell who’s real, you’re going to end up either overpaying fraudsters or under-rewarding your best performers, and that’s not a great position to find yourself in.
Downstream impact ⏳
Your CRM fills up with junk leads, your sales team wastes hours chasing ghosts, and your onboarding metrics plummet. Wasted operational resource hits just as hard as fake affiliate costs.
The solution?
OK. So you might be sitting reading this article thinking “this sounds complicated”, and in all honesty, it can be…but the solution to your problems doesn’t have to be.
Hitprobe was built to catch fraud at the point of entry and before fake leads and spoofed conversions ever hit your numbers (or your bottom line).
Here’s how:
Device fingerprinting 🔍
Every visitor gets a unique fingerprint, so if one affiliate sends 100 “different” signups from the same device, Hitprobe sees through it instantly - no more recycled conversions or “alias” identities.
IP & geolocation analysis 🌍
Hitprobe flags shady activity like multiple signups from the same IP, known VPNs, or geolocation mismatches (e.g. an EU affiliate somehow sending 500 US conversions overnight? Because you’d approve that one, right?).
Session-level data, not cookie reliant data 🍪
Unlike the more basic analytics tools, Hitprobe doesn’t rely on browser cookies alone. Instead, it tracks user behaviour at the session level (at the point of the ad click through to when they drop off your website).
Custom events and alerts 🚨
Irrespective of the action, once you set your key events and goals, Hitprobe tracks it closely on autopilot, and sends real-time alerts when patterns look sketchy - like the same session submitting 10 leads in under 2 minutes.
Combining all of this means you don’t just see affiliate fraud, you stop it dead in its tracks.
A look under the hood
Lets take everything we know so far and stick it in a neatly wrapped example of how it works, and how to stop it.
You’re running a pretty generous affiliate deal - $10 credit for every new signup and operationally you’ve made it super simple to track with UTM codes.
That’s where the loophole lives, but this is how Hitprobe detects and prevents it.
Step 1: Tracking the first click 🎯
Your system might have its own referral or affiliate section, and that fraudster knows all about it.
They sign up to your scheme, or your system creates them their own pre-assigned affiliate link. Maybe it looks something a little like this:“utm_source=affiliate&utm_campaign=affiliatecashheist”.
They copy the link and either open a new browser window or incognito tab and paste it in.
Behind the scenes, Hitprobe fires instantly:
- Tagging the session with a unique device fingerprint
- Logging the IP address and flagging any known risks associated
- Tracking the UTM parameters to tie this click directly to the affiliate
- Generating a session ID to help you track the full engagement and behaviour
Step 2: The fake sign ups begin ⚙️
Using the same device and IP address, the fraudster kicks off their “new customer” routine.
This time the name is “Jayne Doe” instead of “Jane Doe.”
The email? A burner email or a sneaky variation like “john.doe+bonus1@gmail.com”.
Are your systems built to sniff that out? Probably not 🤔
To your CRM, this looks like a fresh lead.
To Hitprobe? It’s déjà vu. Same device. Same IP. Same behavior.
Alert triggered...this session’s not legit 🚨
That device? Already registered. That IP? Seen it before. And that UTM affiliate link? Already tied to this exact setup.
Seeing the same UTM link isn’t the issue - great partners should spread the word.
But when that same link drives a “new signup” from the same device...that isn’t new at all?
That’s a red flag ⚠️
Step 3: The payout gets blocked 🔐
The fraudster thinks it’s payday.
They’ve faked another sign up, the bonus is surely queued, and they’re expecting $10 to drop into their account.
But this time… nothing happens. Why?
Because Hitprobe’s already flagged the activity behind the scenes - same device, same IP, and same affiliate link.
Now your system’s no longer flying blind.
We trigger the alert, you take the required action and the payout? Blocked.
The fraudster’s trick is exposed, the affiliate is flagged for abuse and your budget? Still right where it should be.
No drama. No forensic deep dives. Just clear, real-time signals you can act on - fast.
That’s how Hitprobe helps you shut down affiliate fraud before it drains another penny.
The true cost of affiliate fraud
On the surface, it’s “just” $10 per referral.
No big deal, right? 🤔
But when that $10 is triggered by a fake sign-up, and that sign-up might happen 20, 50, or 100 times from the same fraudster? Suddenly you’re not losing a tenner. You’re potentially bleeding thousands.
And it doesn’t stop there:
- Paid ads fuel the funnel: You’re running campaigns to bring real users into your product. But affiliate fraud inflates your signup numbers, making your campaigns look healthier than they actually are. If you double down, you waste even more.
- Bonus payments stack up: Some programs offer tiered payouts like “Hit 100 signups, and earn a bonus $50”. Fraudsters know this, so they inflate their numbers to unlock the bigger, juicer rewards.
- Your team ends up chasing ghosts: Fake leads eat up time and process, support teams pointlessly onboard them, sales teams follow up on inactivity and data teams report on them. All of it, wasted, because none of it really exists.
- Product usage gets distorted: Fake users don’t behave like real ones. They don’t churn normally, they don’t convert properly, and they muddy every dashboard you rely on to make informed decisions.
That “small leak” in your affiliate program can fast become a profit-sucking black hole.
Quick tips to fight affiliate fraud
If you’re looking for ways to keep your program clean and your payouts real, here’s our tips on where to start:
The bottom line
Affiliate programs are built on trust - you reward people for sending real customers, not for gaming the system 💵
But if you're relying on UTM links flying solo and unprotected without tracking who's behind them, you’re handing out bonuses to fraudsters who never earned them.
Every fake signup pollutes your data, every shady payout drains your budget, and every day you don’t act, your affiliate program becomes a little less sustainable 📉
The best marketers know that growth isn’t just about scaling, it’s about protecting what's already been built.
Hitprobe helps you track the real users, flag the fakes, and keep your payouts clean.
Let’s shut down affiliate fraud, one fake signup at a time.
Sign up to Hitprobe for a free 7-day trial and run a health check on your affiliate process.
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