Is click fraud “real”? 6 reasons you'd better believe it

We hear a lot about click fraud, but what solid evidence is there that click fraud is a genuine, real-world problem?

Google says it’s real

This is the number one reason because what clearer evidence could there be than Google themselves having an entire microsite about the problem.

Their traffic quality resource does a good job at explaining the risks of click fraud, and does go some way to explaining what they do about it.

It’s definitely true that Google work hard to root out and refund as many invalid clicks as they can, but as we recently found, it’s still necessary to use another layer of click fraud protection.

We’d always recommend our own (of course).

Google Ads reports some invalid clicks directly

There’s a little known column hidden away in Google reports that actually shows you the number of clicks that are found to be invalid by Google.

This is certainly useful, and at least gives some reassurance that you won’t be paying for all the click fraud on your ads.

Bots, click farms, and ad fraud networks exist

We know click farms are real, and we know about some major botnets that have been busted in recent years.

We’ve already compiled a list of notable botnet cases. But to take just one example, the 3ve botnet (pronounced “eve”), operated between 2013 and 2018.

It was a traditional botnet, relying on virus infected phones and computers in homes and offices, hijacked to generate fake clicks on fake webpages containing real ads. Around $30 million is estimated to have been stolen from advertisers.

Not only that, some incredibly large ad fraud operations have been uncovered that don’t even need botnets or click farms to cheat advertisers out of their budgets.

For example, in 2022, the Vastflux fraud was first uncovered. This relied on a practice known as “ad stacking”. Rather than using infected devices and fake clicks to defraud advertisers, up to 25 ads were stacked on top of each other in genuine ad slots on real apps.

These are only the tip of the iceberg. Major fraud networks that are so large they force the governments into action. But how many smaller botnets and frauds are happening below the surface?

There has been litigation brought

After a flurry of cases in the early days of pay-per-click, lawsuits related to click-fraud have died down.

In September 2017, Google amended its AdWords (now Google Ads) contract so that claims such as click fraud would be forced into an arbitration process.

It was actually possible for existing advertisers at this point to accept the new terms but decline the arbitration clause.

This new clause (and similar clauses in other online advertising contracts) makes it very difficult to make litigation claims around click fraud.

It’s broadly thought that ad platforms don’t want fraud cases to reach court because that would force them to reveal the techniques they use to combat fraud. At the very least, this would help the fraudsters that they seek to keep away from their platforms.

Despite all of that, there have been a few click fraud litigation cases in recent years, most notably and recently, the Singh v. Google case.

Singh claimed that Google Ads doesn’t adequately stop invalid traffic. He brought an expert (Dr. Roberto Cavazos), who asserted that the ratio of invalid clicks was 14%.

In 2022 the claimant was denied his motion for class certification of the case. The case was dismissed in 2024.

It should be noted that very few legal cases around advertising fraud seem particularly strong, especially those brought directly against the ad networks.

Click fraud protection is a fast growing market

Market research firm Cognitive’s Ad Fraud Detection Tools Market Report 2024 (Global Edition) found that the total market size for ad fraud tools will be USD $281.2 million in 2024 and grow at a compound rate of 18% from 2024 through 2031.

Its report also noted the role that programmatic advertising plays in this:

The rise of programmatic advertising is another significant driving factor for the Ad Fraud Detection Tool market. Programmatic advertising automates the buying and selling of digital ad space, making it more efficient but also more susceptible to fraudulent activities.

Many people complain about it

Reddit and other social media platforms are full of advertisers complaining about rampant click fraud.

Reddit user ritual-owl claimed to have worked for one of the big ad networks and complained that not enough was being done to stop invalid clicks.

When asked what advertisers could do, they said:

Third parties with no misaligned incentives should be the ones in charge of detecting the fraud.
Can you imagine if casinos audited their own slot machines? That seems to be the state of this industry

In a separate discussion about ad fraud, Reddit user chadwarden1337 said that:

GDN click fraud is a disaster. Search, click fraud is less of an issue, but we’ve seen an uptick in the last year. Device level targeting and exclusions - OS/connection type/etc can take care of a lot. Bulk location exclusions as well.

On the same thread, IntelligentSpeaker commented:

It completely depends on your niches, but many campaigns I work on have 80% invalid clicks(fraud) and that’s just according to google. I find another 30% that get passed google filters. In other words it’s a huge never ending uncontrollable problem

And finally, user dirtymonkey added:

Do I think there is robotic traffic that clicks on ads? I don't think it, I know it. There is robotic traffic clicking on your ads. It tends to be more prevalent in display environments, but it can happen with Google search as well.

Social networks are full of complaints about advertising fraud. Granted, these are opinions and are largely unverified.

But, talk of click fraud is so common and so frequent that it seems like a clear indication that there is a real, genuine problem.

Dealing with click fraud — what next?

• Learn how to ask Google to investigate invalid clicks
• Read our complete guide to click fraud
• Use Hitprobe to protect your site from click fraud